Sweep…your best chance of a winner?
Stuck with the 100/1 shot in the work sweep? Here’s a quick look at how you might fare…
Saturday April 6, 4.15pm
Going: Good (Good to Soft in places)
4 miles 3f, 40 Runners
Won over 3 miles: 10/10
Age 9-10: 8/10
Wght 11st-1 or less: 8/10
Racing Post Rating 160+: 6/10
Favs/Joint Favs: 3/10
Jumped in National before: 7/13
Irish trained: 6/14
Started top 8 in betting: 16/22
No winner under 8 yrs for 73 years
Only won winner over 11-5 since 1977
Every winner ran in last 49 days, bar one, since 1988
The runners (20-40)
Always Waining 12-10-10 (40/1)
Form in the last two races (87) isn’t a concern. Follows a familiar pattern in Aintree prep races and usually thrives here (three-time Topham Chase winner). Age is the big concern, but a lively outsider.
Tatenen 9-10-10 (66-1)
Has never won a 3-miler of note and unseated here last year.
Treacle 12-10-9 (40-1)
Difficult sort to assess. Lightly raced since falling in last year’s National but won his final prep race, albeit it a middling 3-miler on heavy ground at Down Royal.
Lost Glory 8-10-8 (66-1)
Talented type with solid recent form but as an 8-year-old hasn’t raced for a prize of greater than £12k. Huge step up.
Swing Bill 12-10-8 (66-1)
Floundered at Cheltenham (16/24) but could go a little better here if he can repeat the form he showed when 4th in the Becher Handicap Chase in December. Unlikely to figure.
Saint Are 7-10-8 (50-1)
Has excellent form at Aintree (two-time winner in some handy races) but no horse under the age of 8 has won the National in 73 years.
Chicago Grey 10-10-7 (14-1)
Seems to divide opinion and is plenty short at 12/1, yet he fits the profile very well, is nicely handicapped and has won over 4 miles (at the Cheltenham Festival). Probably enough doubts – price, poor show last year, prefers it soft, suspect jumping at times – to oppose however.
Quiscover Fontaine 9-10-7 (40-1)
Much to oppose: no significant victories, patchy form, faller last year. Lacks the class to make an impact.
Rare Bob 11-10-6 (25-1)
A few successes earlier in his career but hasn’t done a lot in the last two years. Don’t like this at all at the price.
The Rainbow Hunter 9-10-6 (66-1)
Battling type but prone to the odd blunder or ten. Has yet to produce anything of note in a decent field and easy to oppose.
Becauseicouldntsee 10-10-6 (66-1)
Plenty of excuses in the name, but has failed to get round the National fences in two attempts. Is better than that but hard to fancy.
Harry the Viking 8-10-6 (40-1)
Some superb early form in minor races, but has struggled to jump up in class and has been pulled up twice in his last four starts.
Mr Moonshine 9-10-5 (80-1)
Has never done it at a decent level but is well handicapped and is definitely not the rag the price suggests. Is 50s elsewhere, which seems nearer his true price.
Mumbles Head 12-10-4 (150-1)
Rank outsider in the field and while that may be a little unfair – he won three 3-mile races in a row last year – it’s tough to make a case for this 12-year-old.
Ninetieth Minute 10-10-3 (66-1)
Last-gasp winner? Unlikely. Seems to struggle over 3 miles so this should be a stretch too far.
Auroras Encore 11-10-3 (66-1)
Won a decent race at Haydock last year before a bold second in the Scottish National. Patchy since then and showed nothing last time out. Is better than the price suggests though and worth keeping an eye on.
Tarquinius 10-10-2 (100-1)
Done admirably in some pretty crappy races in Ireland. May have something bigger in him but looked way off it when joint-favourite last time out.
Any Currency 10-10-0 (80-1)
Plodding type who struggled in the Glenfarclas at Cheltenham (off 9-13). Hard to fancy.
Major Malarkey 10-9-13 (100-1)
As short as 50-1 elsewhere so offers some value at double that price. Tends to stay and was second in last year’s Midlands Grand National. A repeat of Mon Mome’s 100/1 win is unlikely but he is not without place chances.
Soll 8-9-12 (33-1)
Respected but didn’t do much in the Welsh National or the Hennessy. Big question marks with only 9 starts to his name, but has talent and looked good when winning prep race.
Viking Blond 8-9-11 (100-1)
His day might come, but it’s unlikely to be now. Little meaningful form to go on.