Teaforthree = Champagne for one

Shortlist

Big Fella Thanks 11-11-6 (40-1)
Game old boy who has completed all four races here (including a fourth place in 2010). Stamina at the finish has been an issue in the past but ground may help that. Back to winning ways this year and has place chance, although is hiked 5lb on last year (when 7th).

Negatives: Weight, age, stamina.

Roberto Goldback 11-11-6 (33-1)
Winner at Ascot off 10-10 in November but hiked since despite mixed form. Worth a look but huge question marks including trip, lack of National experience, weight and ground.

Negatives: Weight, age, National experience.

Ballabriggs 12-11-4 (20-1)
5lb drop since last year when sixth and only 2lb up from 2011 when he won. Age against him but has outside place chance.

Negatives: Weight, age.

Colbert Station 9-11-1 (12-1)
Will go off near the top of the betting with AP McCoy confirming this as his preferred choice. Should be a real player if form in Ireland is anything to go by, especially after victory in the 28-runner Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December. Questions over distance.

Negatives: Stamina, days since last race.

On his Own 9-11-0 (8-1)
Ruby Walsh rides the current favourite. Tough to oppose: strong on trends and unlucky faller last year when going well.

Negatives: Price, faller last year.

Saint Are 7-10-8 (50-1)
Has excellent form at Aintree (two-time winner in some handy races) but no horse under the age of 8 has won the National in 73 years.

Negatives: Age.

Auroras Encore 11-10-3 (66-1)
Won a decent race at Haydock last year before a bold second in the Scottish National. Patchy since then and showed nothing last time out. Is better than the price suggests though and worth keeping an eye on.

Negatives: Class, form.

Major Malarkey 10-9-13 (100-1)
As short as 50-1 elsewhere so offers some value at double that price. Tends to stay and was second in last year’s Midlands Grand National. A repeat of Mon Mome’s 100/1 win is unlikely but he is not without place chances.

Negatives: Days since last race, class, jumping.

Teaforthree 9-11-3 (16-1)
Really strong on trends. No National experience and suspect last out but has a huge chance.

Positives: Runner-up in Welsh National, 4-mile winner at Cheltenham, stamina.

Across the Bay 9-11-2 (40-1)
Wind operation seemed to make a difference when winning last out at Haydock. Disappointing in Welsh National carrying a huge weight (11-12) on heavy ground. Mixed recent record in big fields 7/17, PU/24, 4/20, 8/24.

Positives: Aintree form, season form.

Balthazar King 9-10-12 (20-1)
141 days since last run is a negative and has no Aintree experience. That said, he has bags of form at Cheltenham including a win in the monster 3m 7f Glenfarclas Chase (where he also came back from a lay-off). Missed Cheltenham this year and merits consideration.

Positives: Weight, Winner in Glenfarclas, ground.

Cappa Bleu 11-10-11 (12-1)
Steadily attracting support in the last few days. 1lb rise on last year’s fourth place seems fair and would not be a major surprise if he got in the places. 28 lengths behind Across the Bay over 3 miles in November but improved nicely in last prep race.

Positives: 3rd in Welsh National 2011, 4th in National 2012

Always Waining 12-10-10 (40/1)
Form in the last two races (87) isn’t a concern. Follows a familiar pattern in Aintree prep races and usually thrives here (three-time Topham Chase winner). Age is the big concern, but a lively outsider.

Positives: Aintree form.

Picks

TEAFORTHREE 3pts win at 16/1 (Various)
ACROSS THE BAY 0.5pts e/w at 40/1 (six places at Bet Victor)
ALWAYS WAINING 0.5pt e/w at 33/1 (six places at Bet Victor)

Sweep…your best chance of a winner?

Stuck with the 100/1 shot in the work sweep? Here’s a quick look at how you might fare…

Grand National
Saturday April 6, 4.15pm
Going: Good (Good to Soft in places)
4 miles 3f, 40 Runners

Trends

Won over 3 miles: 10/10
Age 9-10: 8/10
Wght 11st-1 or less: 8/10
Racing Post Rating 160+: 6/10
Favs/Joint Favs: 3/10
Jumped in National before: 7/13
Irish trained: 6/14
Started top 8 in betting: 16/22
No winner under 8 yrs for 73 years
Only won winner over 11-5 since 1977
Every winner ran in last 49 days, bar one, since 1988

The runners (20-40)

Always Waining 12-10-10 (40/1)
Form in the last two races (87) isn’t a concern. Follows a familiar pattern in Aintree prep races and usually thrives here (three-time Topham Chase winner). Age is the big concern, but a lively outsider.

Tatenen 9-10-10 (66-1)
Has never won a 3-miler of note and unseated here last year.

Treacle 12-10-9 (40-1)
Difficult sort to assess. Lightly raced since falling in last year’s National but won his final prep race, albeit it a middling 3-miler on heavy ground at Down Royal.

Lost Glory 8-10-8 (66-1)
Talented type with solid recent form but as an 8-year-old  hasn’t raced for a prize of greater than £12k. Huge step up.

Swing Bill 12-10-8 (66-1)
Floundered at Cheltenham (16/24) but could go a little better here if he can repeat the form he showed when 4th in the Becher Handicap Chase in December. Unlikely to figure.

Saint Are 7-10-8 (50-1)
Has excellent form at Aintree (two-time winner in some handy races)  but no horse under the age of 8 has won the National in 73 years.

Chicago Grey 10-10-7 (14-1)
Seems to divide opinion and is plenty short at 12/1, yet he fits the profile very well, is nicely handicapped and has won over 4 miles (at the Cheltenham Festival). Probably enough doubts – price, poor show last year, prefers it soft, suspect jumping at times – to oppose however.

Quiscover Fontaine 9-10-7 (40-1)
Much to oppose: no significant victories, patchy form, faller last year. Lacks the class to make an impact.

Rare Bob 11-10-6 (25-1)
A few successes earlier in his career but hasn’t done a lot in the last two years. Don’t like this at all at the price.

The Rainbow Hunter 9-10-6 (66-1)
Battling type but prone to the odd blunder or ten. Has yet to produce anything of note in a decent field and easy to oppose.

Becauseicouldntsee 10-10-6 (66-1)
Plenty of excuses in the name, but has failed to get round the National fences in two attempts. Is better than that but hard to fancy.

Harry the Viking 8-10-6 (40-1)
Some superb early form in minor races, but has struggled to jump up in class and has been pulled up twice in his last four starts.

Mr Moonshine 9-10-5 (80-1)
Has never done it at a decent level but is well handicapped and is definitely not the rag the price suggests. Is 50s elsewhere, which seems nearer his true price.

Mumbles Head 12-10-4 (150-1)
Rank outsider in the field and while that may be a little unfair – he won three 3-mile races in a row last year – it’s tough to make a case for this 12-year-old.

Ninetieth Minute 10-10-3 (66-1)
Last-gasp winner? Unlikely. Seems to struggle over 3 miles so this should be a stretch too far.

Auroras Encore 11-10-3 (66-1)
Won a decent race at Haydock last year before a bold second in the Scottish National. Patchy since then and showed nothing last time out. Is better than the price suggests though and worth keeping an eye on.

Tarquinius 10-10-2 (100-1)
Done admirably in some pretty crappy races in Ireland. May have something bigger in him but looked way off it when joint-favourite last time out.

Any Currency 10-10-0 (80-1)
Plodding type who struggled in the Glenfarclas at Cheltenham (off 9-13). Hard to fancy.

Major Malarkey 10-9-13 (100-1)
As short as 50-1 elsewhere so offers some value at double that price. Tends to stay and was second in last year’s Midlands Grand National. A repeat of Mon Mome’s 100/1 win is unlikely but he is not without place chances.

Soll 8-9-12 (33-1)
Respected but didn’t do much in the Welsh National or the Hennessy. Big question marks with only 9 starts to his name, but has talent and looked good when winning prep race.

Viking Blond 8-9-11 (100-1)
His day might come, but it’s unlikely to be now. Little meaningful form to go on.